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What do you think? There has been news about how the super-delegates in the Democrat party have the potential to hand Hilary the nomination even if she is out-voted in the primaries and trails in regular delegates. Do you think this is possible? If it should happen that Hilary does not secure the Democrat nomination democratically, but instead does so by what looks more like backroom deals and party cronyism, what do you think the effect shall be? Will that turn off the Obama voters like a lightbulb?

I have also heard suggested that Hilary may try to get a court order to make the contests in Michigan and Florida on the Democrat side to count, where she was the only candidate on the ballot. Do you think that will happen? Will it fly? What would be the effect? I know that the Democrats set it up that since those states violated party rules and let their primaries supercede certain other states, that their delegates at stake for those contests would not get seated at the convention. But it's happened before that the Democrats contended the outcome of elections and changed rules for an election after the election was already underway. Case in point the Senate race in New Jersey in 2002. When it became clear that Senator Torricelli would not win re-election, he bowed out and, although there was not time by state law to select a new candidate, the Democrats petitioned that they should be allowed to run former Senator Lautenberg as a last minute substitute candidate "to give the voters a choice". The State Supreme Court agreed and Senator Lautenberg won the election. The Republicans cried fowl, but to no avail, of course. I have to wonder, as a spectator of Democrat politics, how the Democrats would like to see such tactics employed in a Democrat vs Democrat race? I really am not trying to be provacative here. I know there are some Democrats on this forum and I'd be interested in their take on this potential. Do you think one's perspective is derived only by who you support in the election, or do you think this would be fundamentally unfair regardless of who you personally support?

Rush today boldly predicted that Hilary will be the nominee for the Democrats no matter what. He said there's too much riding on this election for the Clintons to allow it to fall through on account of this upstart, namely Obama. You know of my disagreements with Rush. But I have to wonder whether he may have a point here. Do you think Hilary will "win" one way or another, by hook or by crook?

Edit: On an altogether different note, I see that Obama, Japan has chosen favorites in this race for some reason. Hmmm. Article is here. Kinda neat.

Assuming he holds on to win the nomination.

You are right to make that notation, Alin. That is a big assumption. Despite your confidence, Herbkir, that Obama has the nomination in the bag, it's far from a done deal. Hilary could lose the primaries and still win the delegate count at the convention. As I said in earlier post, the delegates from Florida and Michigan are still in play. And as of today that remains a truth. Also the superdelegates could tip the scales. Hilary has indicated she's willing to go to the convention fighting. This could be a brokered convention. In fact, unless either side concedes, or Obama wins something like 85% of the delagates here on out, it likely will be a brokered convention on the Democrat side.

If indeed Obama wins the nomination, I think Democrats should have the inside track in the general election. I expect whoever wins the Democrat nomination to pick Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana as his/her runningmate. That is, if they don't pick each other for "unity". The selection of Bayh would be a sound candidate that would indicate an acknowledgement on the part of the Democrat leadership of what I suspect to be the truth, namely, that in order for Democrats to seize the Whitehouse in 08, they must win Indiana and/or Ohio. If they cannot take these crucial bellweather rustbelt states, they will not win the Whitehouse. I think that Hilary runs behind McCain in these two contests. If she selects Bayh, her chances improve slightly. I think an Obama/Bayh ticket would be a slam dunk in Indiana (forgive the March Madness analogy, that one was too juicy to pass up when talking about the Hoosier state), and gives Obama 51% of the vote (or at least 50.5%) in Ohio, thus securing the White House. Indiana and Ohio are the two contests that I think the Democrats can peal away from the Bush winning coalition. I think Florida goes with McCain no matter what. I don't see McCain, despite being known as some great centrist, pealing away anything substantial from either Clinton or Obama. He may take Iowa, a state that Bush took in 04, and he may take New Mexico and New Hampshire, states that Bush took in 04 and 00 respectively. He would have long odds of taking Pennsylvania if facing Hilary. I don't see him taking it against Obama.

So whoever wins the nomination, look for Bayh to be drafted as his or her runningmate. Democrats might be troubled if there is a stinky convention. That is the one fly in their ointment. If Hilary pulls out all the stops and wins at convention, I don't see Obama's supporters rallying to her ticket in droves even if she has Obama on the ticket. And I don't see the Obama folks seeing Hilary as anything but a negative to his ticket. Either way it stacks up, I really don't see another former rival as the runningmate in 08. Bayh is thought of as a centrist, looks good, talks good, is thought of as a man of substance, has not had Rush Limbaugh referring to him as "The Brek Girl", and should poll well with white men. And most importantly, he's from Indiana, a state the Democrats need to win the election. On a ticket with the first black or the first woman to be nominated by a major political party, Bayh will add balance. Still, a stinky convention could cloud what could otherwise be extremely rosy scenerio for Democrats.

I know it's too early, at March 3, to prognosticate about November, but I'm putting my bet on Bayh as the VP Candidate no matter what. And I'd give Obama/Bayh ticket 2 to 1 in favor of winning it all in November over McCain.

How's does that sh-t stack up, Alin?

I think Obama's flip-flop on Nafta and some other responses to tougher questioning from the media is starting to hurt him. And he paid for it in Ohio.

Don't look now, but Hilary may be looking at a wave of renaissance. Whether she is able to ride it remains to be seen. Now we're hearing about re-votes in Michigan and Florida. That combined with the fickleness of the Democrat voter, it could be a magic combination needed for comeback. Polls are starting to suggest that the Democrats are shifting back toward Hilary. If you consider that, we're almost certain to get a brokered convention. And if Obama isn't everyone's favorite by the time of the convention, the superdelegates will have all the cover in the world necessary to give the convention to Hilary.

The media gets what it wants in the Democrat party. And just recently the media was almost decidedly pro-Obama. It seems their sudden shift to finally start asking Obama some tough questions has shifted the winds against him. One thing one must say about Hilary is she's used to dealing with at least partially negative media coverage.

I still think that Obama-Bayh ticket will win in Indiana and Ohio over McCain whereas, despite Hilary's win in Ohio, she (even she and Evan Bayh) would not carry it against McCain. That all goes to the undecideds and independents. I think more people are thoroughly decided to vote against Hilary than any other candidate. I just don't see Hilary beating everybody's friend and favorite Maverick, John McCain.

I won't count Obama out yet. If he can control his access while yet appearing to be a bit more accessible to the media, he can perhaps get some negative press under control. He just better take his gloves to Denver, cause it's gonna be a fight.