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lumsdarling |
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Voted for Obama in New York last night, though in the end NY turned out to be one of his most lop-sided defeats. Oh well, at least he stood toe to toe with
Clinton on the delegate count. I like Obama a lot, but his "Yes We Can!" always makes me think of Bob the Builder, which throws me off a little bit.
So when he says, "Yes we Can!" I usually yell back, "Can we build it?"
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tierum |
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I like Obama a lot, but his "Yes We Can!" always makes me think of Bob the Builder, which throws me off a little bit. So when he says, "Yes we Can!" I usually yell back, "Can we build it?" Anyways...We may have already talked about this, but I'll bring it up anyways. One of my workers suggested that Hillary become Obama's vice prez if he's nominated or vice-versa. I had to give him a WTF?! Both the candidates are too proud and, well, they dislike each other immensely. But, I thought I'd open it up for discussion just for the heck of it. So, what do you think? |
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lumsdarling |
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I would assume that they'd pick the other to get votes they wouldn't otherwise, and I don't know if that would happen. Of course, I really have no
idea what I'm talking about. But this has been such an interesting process, I hope that the vice-presidential pick is as fun - like some secret, super
inspiring, up and coming person who the national press hasn't noticed yet.
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Alindawyl |
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I really don't see either of the two Democrat candidates picking the other to be their running mate. They really don't like each other. Policy-wise
there's not a whole lot of difference between Clinton and Obama, but their personalities just clash way too much.
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GodaiMH |
Romney out! | ||
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Well, prognosticators. What do you think will happen next? Think Huckabee has a shot, or do you think McCain will ride?
And if McCain rides, do you think he takes Huckabee or Romney as his runningmate? Or does he go elsewhere? Honestly, I still think that if Obama wins on the Democrat's side, I don't see him being beaten.
Regards,
GodaiMH MH = Means Married Happily.
(Image kindly edited by Hoshi Shouri. Thanks Hoshi!) |
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jopojelly |
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I agree, Obama has a much better chance of winning the whole thing if he gets the nomination than Hillary.
As for McCain, it seems like he's got it in the bag. Huckabee has no shot, but Romney might have a shot if all the states left are in favor of him. I have no idea who Mccain would take as a running mate...
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Yusaku Godai |
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Why can I not find much news on Romney quitting today? That was a big deal....haha Oh, and I heard that he said he did it for the "good of the Republican
party"....man, that guy's got an ego.
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tierum |
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I just don't think anyone gave him much of a chance to begin with, so his dropping out isn't as big as, say, if Hillary or Obama bowed out. Still, I
have to agree, there should be a bit more coverage. Even here in MA I didn't hear alot about it.
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Alindawyl |
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Romney dropping out of the race was all over the radio here yesterday afternoon. I didn't care much though, since I was never one of his supporters and
didn't give him much of a chance from the beginning.
McCain is almost certain to win the Republican nomination now, thanks to the lackluster support for Huckabee. Because he's not part of the normal Republican leadership or hot shots, I've don't even have a guess who he would be considering as a running mate. It'll probably be someone the party considers to be a "true" conservative, since he's not one. Most of that is because of McCain's wildly vacillating voting record. The American Conservative Union rates our politicos in the legislature each year on how conservative their votes happen to be. McCain has some years where he scores in the 80th percentile, but some years where he scores in the 60th percentile. The type of legislation up for consideration plays a part in that. He tends to vote against the Republican party on issues of taxes, campaign finance reform, and the environment (plus immigration in recent years). The more bills there are in those categories, the more often he votes moderate or liberal. And overall he's voted conservative less in the last ten year than he did before then. Obama isn't "The Anointed One" with a guaranteed victory in his pocket. If he was, the Democrats would be solidly behind him. But because the party is so evenly split on who they support, anything could happen should he eventually win the nomination. Just as there's a large degree of animosity between Clinton and Obama, there's also to some extent a large degree of animosity between their supporters. Although policy-wise there's little difference between the two, they differ greatly on how they do things and present themselves. When differences are highly personal rather than logical, it's very easy to let emotion take over. It's the most visible example of the huge power struggle brewing inside the Democrat party over their future direction. A large number of Clinton or Obama supporters could sit out in protest over their candidate not receiving the nomination. Most of Clinton's support comes from older people and traditional party bigwigs, who could end up being very displeased with an upstart like Obama and the reimaging of the party that would happen under his administration. The younger or more progressive Democrats who support Obama could likewise throw a hissy fit over the "same old same old" heading the party's ticket in the form of Clinton and stay at home in large numbers on election day. Whatever transpires, it'll all make for an interesting election this year. Hardly any analyst or commentator is prepared to make a call on who's got it "in the bag" until the conventions happen and both tickets are in place. Everything is still way too up in the air at this early date. Especially if it's Obama vs McCain, since neither one is the choice of their party's elite. The Republican leadership wanted Romney, and the Democrat leadership wants Clinton. |
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GodaiMH |
Super delegates on the Democrat side, and their potential usefulness. | ||
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What do you think? There has been news about how the super-delegates in the Democrat party have the potential to hand Hilary the nomination even if she is
out-voted in the primaries and trails in regular delegates. Do you think this is possible? If it should happen that Hilary does not secure the Democrat
nomination democratically, but instead does so by what looks more like backroom deals and party cronyism, what do you think the effect shall be? Will that
turn off the Obama voters like a lightbulb?
Edit: On an altogether different note, I see that Obama, Japan has chosen favorites in this race for some reason. Hmmm. Article is here. Kinda neat.
Regards,
GodaiMH MH = Means Married Happily.
(Image kindly edited by Hoshi Shouri. Thanks Hoshi!)
Last Edited By: GodaiMH
02/12/08 10:37 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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Alindawyl |
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One thing to consider about Hillary. Ten years ago, when her husband was president, Democrats were regularly lambasting Republicans for complaining about the
Clinton tactic that became known as "the politics of personal destrucion". Take down your opponent by personal attacks and mudslinging rather than
arguing the issues. Now that the Clintons have been employing that tactic against one of their own (specifically, Obama), you're seeing many Democrat
pundits making the same complaints that they laughed at Republicans for making back when Bill was president.
Not what the Democrats want to have happen when things are starting to look good for them. We'll see if that gets turned up any after Obama's wins in the primaries today. Not that they were unexpected. By all accounts, he should win Wisconsin and Hawaii next week as well. But all of those states have small delegate counts. Ohio and Texas on March 4 are the big ones coming up. Rhode Island and Vermont also have primaries on March 4, but they're not getting a lot of attention thanks to being on the same day as two big states. It will be interesting to see how the superdelegates affect things. Exil polls in most states so far have asked Democrat voters if they'd still vote for the other candidate if their choice didn't win the nomination, and the result has been an overwhelming yes. They've got a strong chance of uniting behind whichever candidate is their nominee, which could fly right out the window if the elected deletate count favors Obama but the superdelegates tip things in favor of Clinton. At least one superdelegate has said she'll resign from the Democrat National Committee if they end up going against the votes of the elected delegates. An intra-party fight would hurt the Democrats terribly in a year where so many things are in their favor. |
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herbkir |
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Hey, tomorrow (March 4) is mini-super-Tuesday with mega-states Texas and Ohio going off, plus Rhode Island and Vermont. Polls going in have her and Obama in
a dead heat in Texas and Clinton with a slight lead in Ohio. Polls give Vermont to Obama and Rhode Island to Hillary. I think that if Hillary loses the two
biggies, it's all over for her.
Delegate math is such that if Hillary wins a majority of delegates in Texas and Ohio, and in Pennsylvania on April 22, it'll come down to the superdelegates' choice. Hillary's best argument to them is that she's popular in the big states so has the best chance of beating McCain in November. If she gets trounced Tuesday in the two biggies plus Vermont, even her husband is saying she should throw in the towel and endorse Obama for the sake of party unity. Or, maybe her people would need to persuade the national party to authorize do-overs in Michigan and Florida with the results counting. Hillary won the beauty-contest primaries in both states. Because of the time and money problems in setting up another primary, do-overs likely would be party caucuses. Anyway, I think tomorrow night we'll hear Hillary's swan song. (For the sake of continued political theater, I hope she wins big, but I'm not expecting it.) Now, in an Obama-McCain race: Who. Would. Win? I'd say Obama because he's fresh and young and so far nobody's found any damning political skeletons in his closet with which to smear him. The mud flung by the Hillary camp to date has failed to stick. (^_*) |
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Alindawyl |
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I refuse to make any predictions about the general election until at least after the conventions. The races in 2000 and 2004 were the democrats' to win,
with so many things being in their favor. Both Gore and Kerry were polling ahead in the leadup to the general election but lost anyway. The support for
either Obama or Clinton among democrats seems less lukewarm than it was for Gore and Kerry, which counts in their favor. But twice now democrats have snatched
defeat from the jaws of victory. They could come up with the hat trick this year. McCain isn't as weak a candidate as Bush was, and both Obama and
Clinton have their negatives. But the mood in the country being so anti-Bush at the moment, that could hurt McCain even though he's the farthest
republican from being a Bush or party insider.
Last week I voted early and cast my ballot for Obama. But I'm hardly sold on him for my vote in November. It will depend on whether I can stomach voting for someone I completely disagree with on the issues, but who seems to be a rather forthright person. Or in the case of McCain, whether I can stomach voting for someone who's a lot closer to me on the issues but who doesn't seem like a forthright person to me. Yeah I know McCain is considered by most on both sides of the political fence to be one of the most ethical people to ever hold public office. Democrats (hardly likely to be biased in his favor) who have investigated allegations against him in the past have all said the man's a saint. Still, something about him rubs me the wrong way bit time. I'm leaning Obama unless something changes my mind once the general election campaign gets underway. And that's the big challenge for Obama. Except for defeating Alan Keyes for his current seat (a feat which any democrat with a pulse could have done), he's only ever run against other democrats. He was hand-picked by democrat state leaders to run for the Illinois senate seat in 1996, a heavily democrat district where the only election that matters is the democrat primary. He had the party leadership's backing again for his win in 1998. He made a bit for a House Congressional seat in 2000, but lost the democrat primary. He won his Illinois state senate seat again in 2002 running unopposed. I'm really curious to see how he fares in a truly competitive race against a non-democrat, a situation he's never faced before. Assuming he holds on to win the nomination. |
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GodaiMH |
It's not a done deal yet. | ||
Assuming he holds on to win the nomination.You are right to make that notation, Alin. That is a big assumption. Despite your confidence, Herbkir, that Obama has the nomination in the bag, it's far from a done deal. Hilary could lose the primaries and still win the delegate count at the convention. As I said in earlier post, the delegates from Florida and Michigan are still in play. And as of today that remains a truth. Also the superdelegates could tip the scales. Hilary has indicated she's willing to go to the convention fighting. This could be a brokered convention. In fact, unless either side concedes, or Obama wins something like 85% of the delagates here on out, it likely will be a brokered convention on the Democrat side. If indeed Obama wins the nomination, I think Democrats should have the inside track in the general election. I expect whoever wins the Democrat nomination to pick Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana as his/her runningmate. That is, if they don't pick each other for "unity". The selection of Bayh would be a sound candidate that would indicate an acknowledgement on the part of the Democrat leadership of what I suspect to be the truth, namely, that in order for Democrats to seize the Whitehouse in 08, they must win Indiana and/or Ohio. If they cannot take these crucial bellweather rustbelt states, they will not win the Whitehouse. I think that Hilary runs behind McCain in these two contests. If she selects Bayh, her chances improve slightly. I think an Obama/Bayh ticket would be a slam dunk in Indiana (forgive the March Madness analogy, that one was too juicy to pass up when talking about the Hoosier state), and gives Obama 51% of the vote (or at least 50.5%) in Ohio, thus securing the White House. Indiana and Ohio are the two contests that I think the Democrats can peal away from the Bush winning coalition. I think Florida goes with McCain no matter what. I don't see McCain, despite being known as some great centrist, pealing away anything substantial from either Clinton or Obama. He may take Iowa, a state that Bush took in 04, and he may take New Mexico and New Hampshire, states that Bush took in 04 and 00 respectively. He would have long odds of taking Pennsylvania if facing Hilary. I don't see him taking it against Obama. So whoever wins the nomination, look for Bayh to be drafted as his or her runningmate. Democrats might be troubled if there is a stinky convention. That is the one fly in their ointment. If Hilary pulls out all the stops and wins at convention, I don't see Obama's supporters rallying to her ticket in droves even if she has Obama on the ticket. And I don't see the Obama folks seeing Hilary as anything but a negative to his ticket. Either way it stacks up, I really don't see another former rival as the runningmate in 08. Bayh is thought of as a centrist, looks good, talks good, is thought of as a man of substance, has not had Rush Limbaugh referring to him as "The Brek Girl", and should poll well with white men. And most importantly, he's from Indiana, a state the Democrats need to win the election. On a ticket with the first black or the first woman to be nominated by a major political party, Bayh will add balance. Still, a stinky convention could cloud what could otherwise be extremely rosy scenerio for Democrats. I know it's too early, at March 3, to prognosticate about November, but I'm putting my bet on Bayh as the VP Candidate no matter what. And I'd give Obama/Bayh ticket 2 to 1 in favor of winning it all in November over McCain. How's does that sh-t stack up, Alin?
Regards,
GodaiMH MH = Means Married Happily.
(Image kindly edited by Hoshi Shouri. Thanks Hoshi!)
Last Edited By: GodaiMH
03/03/08 07:30 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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Alindawyl |
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It sounds plausible. But at this early stage, anything sounds plausible
The one thing I will commit to saying now is I agree that the worst thing for the democrats would be a brokered convention. Leaving things up in the air that long and then having an ugly convention fight will weaken the chances of whoever does win the nomination. |
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Alindawyl |
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By the way, we've got to be unique here in Texas with a combination primary/caucus system that's rather convoluted. Our full results won't be
known until the state party conventions in June
For the democrats, 2/3 of the 193 pledged delegates (the ones that aren't superdelegates) are district delegates chosen by popular vote and 1/3 are state-wide delegates chosen at the state party convention in early June. The delegates at the state convention are chosen by delegates from state senate district conventions and county conventions held at the end of this month. In turn, the participants in those two conventions are decided upon at precinct meetings held at each polling location tonight after the polls close. Normally the precinct meetings start at 7:15PM, 15 minutes after the polls close, and finish within an hour. But this year, due to the expected high turnout, they may delay the meeting start time. Or even move the venue if too many show up. In 2004, around 75,000 people voted in the democrat primaries in Houston. This year, just the EARLY voting for Houston democrats is over 170,000 people. I can't even imagine the logistics of dealing with, say, 500 people showing up for a precinct meeting that normally has about 15 attendees. If that wasn't bad enough, you can't vote in the primary of more than one party. Your voter card is stamped by the party when you vote in their primary. So attendees at the precinct meetings have to show their stamped card to get in, or give an oath that they voted in that primary if they don't have a stamped card. Expect possible challenges by precinct meeting moderators if they think any shenanigans are going on, another potential delay. The precinct meetings do allow folks to show up after they start, and late arrivals can take part in any voting/caucusing that hasn't been completed yet. Previously decided upon results can't be affected by a late arrival. To make matters even MORE interesting on the democrat side, our state party doesn't apportion the district delegates by Congressional House districts. That's the normal procedure used in other states. Our democrat district delegates are apportioned by state senate districts, of which we have 31. And the apportioning is based on the voter count in the last two democrat statewide elections, for governor in 2006 and president in 2004. Because of voting patterns in Texas, that typically means districts with a large number of blacks get more democrat delegates than districts with a large number of hispanics (somewhere around 40% of registered hispanic voters in Texas are republicans). That's a bonus for Obama and a detriment for Clinton. Time to break out the popcorn and watch the show |
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Rob Heinbecker |
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Think the NAFTA gaffe on Obama's team could hurt them in Ohio?
"The saddest part of a broken heart is not the ending so much as the start." (Leslie) Feist
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GodaiMH |
The upshot of Super Tuesday II -- The Return of Mrs. Clinton! | ||
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I think Obama's flip-flop on Nafta and some other responses to tougher questioning from the media is starting to hurt him. And he paid for it in Ohio.
Don't look now, but Hilary may be looking at a wave of renaissance. Whether she is able to ride it remains to be seen. Now we're hearing about re-votes in Michigan and Florida. That combined with the fickleness of the Democrat voter, it could be a magic combination needed for comeback. Polls are starting to suggest that the Democrats are shifting back toward Hilary. If you consider that, we're almost certain to get a brokered convention. And if Obama isn't everyone's favorite by the time of the convention, the superdelegates will have all the cover in the world necessary to give the convention to Hilary. The media gets what it wants in the Democrat party. And just recently the media was almost decidedly pro-Obama. It seems their sudden shift to finally start asking Obama some tough questions has shifted the winds against him. One thing one must say about Hilary is she's used to dealing with at least partially negative media coverage. I still think that Obama-Bayh ticket will win in Indiana and Ohio over McCain whereas, despite Hilary's win in Ohio, she (even she and Evan Bayh) would not carry it against McCain. That all goes to the undecideds and independents. I think more people are thoroughly decided to vote against Hilary than any other candidate. I just don't see Hilary beating everybody's friend and favorite Maverick, John McCain. I won't count Obama out yet. If he can control his access while yet appearing to be a bit more accessible to the media, he can perhaps get some negative press under control. He just better take his gloves to Denver, cause it's gonna be a fight.
Regards,
GodaiMH MH = Means Married Happily.
(Image kindly edited by Hoshi Shouri. Thanks Hoshi!) |
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herbkir |
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Hilary won the popular vote in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, but her relative delegate position to Obama remained unchanged. She's still about 90
delegates behind him. But she decisively broke Obama's winning streak and that means she'll get more favorable media coverage and new infusions of
money. And she still can claim she wins the big states while Obama carries the small fry. So the battle will continue for now.
Meanwhile, McCain has locked in the Republican nomination and is laughing his butt off, watching Hilary and Obama give him ammo to use in his campaign against the eventual Democratic winner. (^_*) |
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Rob Heinbecker |
Thoughts | ||
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What are your thoughts on A) The Florida "Do-Over" and B) the length the Democrat nomination process is taking. Will it hurt them if they have to go
all the way to the August convention?
"The saddest part of a broken heart is not the ending so much as the start." (Leslie) Feist
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